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弁言
北京时间凌晨4点，鲍威尔在达拉斯的演讲中暗示“经济并莫得发出任何咱们需要急于裁减利率的信号”，这是他在通胀数据公布后初度提供对改日货币计策的指导/交流，天然在演讲稿中鲍威尔依然强调奇迹和通胀的风险趋于均衡，但在说起通胀时强调了2%的标的莫得被达到（not there yet），况兼发奋于“完成这项奇迹”（committed to finishing the job）。
笔者的不雅感是，比拟于9月/11月议息会议时的表态和姿态，鲍威尔隐微地把风险均衡从奇迹风险再度拨回了中间态。此前阛阓参与者并未把2%列为严格的需要被达到的通胀数字标的，但鲍威尔的表态看起来这是一项必须完成的任务，这大约与来岁5年一度的联储框架审查压力联系。
另外，这种姿态变化显着不是大选的胜出者念念要看到的……
演讲全文
Good afternoon. Thank you to the World Affairs Council, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and the Dallas Regional Chamber for the kind invitation to be with you today. I will start with some brief comments on the economy and monetary policy.
寰球下昼好。感辞寰宇事务委员会、达拉斯联邦储备银行和达拉斯地区商会的好意思意邀请。最初，我将简要谈谈经济和货币计策。
Looking back, the U.S. economy has weathered a global pandemic and its aftermath and is now back to a good place. The economy has made significant progress toward our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices. The labor market remains in solid condition. Inflation has eased substantially from its peak, and we believe it is on a sustainable path to our 2 percent goal. We are committed to maintaining our economy's strength by returning inflation to our goal while supporting maximum employment.
追念当年，好意思国经济承袭住了Covid尽头效力的考研，咫尺已规复到精粹的状态。经济在终了充分奇迹和物价镇静的双重责任方面取得了要害进展。劳能源阛阓依然雄厚。通胀率已从岑岭大幅回落，咱们深信，通胀率正朝着2%的标的握续迈进。咱们发奋于通过使通胀率回到咱们的标的，同期支握充分奇迹，来保握咱们的经济强盛。
Recent Economic Data 近期经济数据
Economic growth 经济增长
The recent performance of our economy has been remarkably good, by far the best of any major economy in the world. Economic output grew by more than 3 percent last year and is expanding at a stout 2.5 percent rate so far this year. Growth in consumer spending has remained strong, supported by increases in disposable income and solid household balance sheets. Business investment in equipment and intangibles has accelerated over the past year. In contrast, activity in the housing sector has been weak.
我国经济近期的推崇十分出色，是迄今为止寰宇主要经济体中推崇最佳的。旧年，经济产出增长了3%以上，本年到咫尺为止，经济增长速率达到了2.5%。在可主宰收入加多和家庭财富欠债表庄重的撑握下，奢华开销增长依然强盛。当年一年，企业在建造和无形财富方面的投资也在加快。与此违抗，住房部门的看成却十分疲软。
Improving supply conditions have supported this strong performance of the economy. The labor force has expanded rapidly, and productivity has grown faster over the past five years than its pace in the two decades before the pandemic, increasing the productive capacity of the economy and allowing rapid economic growth without overheating.
供应条件的改善为经济的强盛推崇提供了支握。劳能源队伍飞速扩大，当年五年的分娩率增长速率突出了Covid以前二十年的速率，普及了经济的分娩能力，使经济在不外热的情况下快速增长。
The labor market 劳能源阛阓
The labor market remains in solid condition, having cooled off from the significantly overheated conditions of a couple of years ago, and is now by many metrics back to more normal levels that are consistent with our employment mandate. The number of job openings is now just slightly above the number of unemployed Americans seeking work. The rate at which workers quit their jobs is below the pre-pandemic pace, after touching historic highs two years ago. Wages are still increasing, but at a more sustainable pace. Hiring has slowed from earlier in the year. The most recent jobs report for October reflected significant effects from hurricanes and labor strikes, making it difficult to get a clear signal. Finally, at 4.1 percent, the unemployment rate is notably higher than a year ago but has flattened out in recent months and remains historically low.
劳能源阛阓的气象依然庄重，还是从几年前显着过热的气象中冷却下来，从好多联想来看，当今还是规复到与咱们的奇迹任务相一致的校渊博水平。咫尺，职位空白数目仅略高于好意思国休闲求职东谈主数。工东谈主的离职率在两年前达到历史高点后，当今已低于疫情前的水平。工资仍在增长，且速率更可握续。与年头比拟，招聘速率有所放缓。10月份的最新奇迹申报反应了飓风和歇工的要害影响，因此很难获取明确的信号。终末，休闲率为 4.1%，显着高于一年前，但最近几个月已趋于牢固，仍处于历史低位。
Inflation 通货扩展
The labor market has cooled to the point where it is no longer a source of significant inflationary pressures. This cooling and the substantial improvement in broader supply conditions have brought inflation down significantly over the past two years from its mid-2022 peak above 7 percent. Progress on inflation has been broad based. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data released this week indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in October and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8 percent. Core measures of goods and services inflation, excluding housing, fell rapidly over the past two years and have returned to rates closer to those consistent with our goals. We expect that these rates will continue to fluctuate in their recent ranges. We are watching carefully to be sure that they do, however, just as we are closely tracking the gradual decline in housing services inflation, which has yet to fully normalize. Inflation is running much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but it is not there yet. We are committed to finishing the job. With labor market conditions in rough balance and inflation expectations well anchored, I expect inflation to continue to come down toward our 2 percent objective, albeit on a sometimes-bumpy path.
劳能源阛阓还是降温，不再是要害通胀压力的来源。这种降温以及更平凡的供应条件的大幅改善，使通胀率在当年两年中从2022年中期突出7%的峰值大幅回落。通胀方面的进展具有平凡的基础。凭证本周公布的奢华者价钱指数（CPI）和其他数据进行的估算标明，在放手10月份的12个月中，PCE总价钱高涨了2.3%，撤除波动较大的食物和能源类别，中枢PCE价钱高涨了2.8%。不包括住房在内的中枢商品和服务通胀率在当年两年中飞速着落，咫尺已规复到更接近咱们标的的水平。咱们瞻望，通胀率将连接在其最近的读数限制内波动。不外，咱们正在仔细不雅察，以确保它们如实如斯，正如咱们正在密切追踪住房服务通胀率的徐徐着落同样，这一通胀率尚未皆备渊博化。通胀率正徐徐接近咱们2%的始终标的，但还莫得达到。咱们发奋于完成这项奇迹。跟着劳能源阛阓气象的基本均衡和通胀预期的精粹锚定，我瞻望通胀率将连接向2%的标的回落，尽管谈路巧合会七高八低。
Monetary Policy 货币计策
Given progress toward our inflation goal and the cooling of labor market conditions, last week my Federal Open Market Committee colleagues and I took another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate 1/4 percentage point.
鉴于咱们在终了通胀标的方面取得的进展以及劳能源阛阓气象的降温，上周我和联邦公开阛阓委员会的共事们在裁减计策敛迹（紧缩）流程方面又迈出了一步，将计策利率下调了25个基点。
We are confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained, with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent. We see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks to both sides. We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.
咱们深信，只好恰当调度咱们的计策态度，经济和劳能源阛阓就能保握强盛，通胀率也能握续着落到2%。咱们觉得，终了奇迹标的和通胀标的所靠近的风险大体均衡，咱们会保养这两方面的风险。咱们知谈，过快地减少计策敛迹可能会阻截通胀方面的进展。与此同期，过慢地减少计策敛迹也会不恰当地减弱经济看成和奇迹。
We are moving policy over time to a more neutral setting. But the path for getting there is not preset. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, we will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully. Ultimately, the path of the policy rate will depend on how the incoming data and the economic outlook evolve.
跟着时间的推移，咱们正在将计策转向愈加中性的设定。但终了这一标的的旅途并不是预设的。在接头春联邦基金利率标的区间进行稀疏调度时，咱们将仔细评估收到的数据、不停变化的长进以及风险均衡。经济并莫得发出任何咱们需要急于裁减利率的信号。咱们咫尺看到的经济强盛近况使咱们有能力严慎地作念出决定。最终，计策利率的走向将取决于新数据和经济长进的演变。
We remain resolute in our commitment to the dual mandate given to us by Congress: maximum employment and price stability. Our aim has been to return inflation to our objective without the kind of painful rise in unemployment that has often accompanied past efforts to bring down high inflation. That would be a highly desirable result for the communities, families, and businesses we serve. While the task is not complete, we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome.
咱们仍然刚硬地发奋于完成国会赋予咱们的双重责任：充分奇迹和镇静物价。咱们的标的是使通胀率回到咱们的标的，而不会像当年为裁减高通胀率所作念的努力那样，伴跟着休闲率的上升而祸害不胜。关于咱们所服务的社区、家庭和企业来说，这将是一个十分理念念的扫尾。天然任务尚未完成，但咱们还是在终了这一标的方面取得了很猛进展。
Thank you, and I look forward to our discussion.
谢谢，我期待着咱们的讨论
著述来源：智堡投研，原文标题：《鲍威尔：不急于降息》
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